Steady Hand
ConservativePrioritizes consistency over big swings. Lower variance, reliable week-to-week. Best for season-long tracking.
Steady Hand takes the opposite approach to Edge Hunter. It avoids volatile matchups and focuses on games with clear, stable statistical advantages. It rarely forecasts large point differentials, preferring the 1-4 point range where the margin for error is smallest. This makes it ideal for season-long tracking, where maintaining consistency matters more than chasing big upsets.
Forecast Accuracy
55.9%
Record
113-89-6
Total Forecasts
208
Best Streak
7
Season-by-Season Performance
Accuracy record across full regular seasons
| Season | Accuracy | Record | Forecasts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 53.9% | 41-35 | 76 |
| 2024 | 60.3% | 38-25-2 | 65 |
| 2023 | 58.8% | 20-14-4 | 38 |
| 2022 | 48.3% | 14-15 | 29 |
Team Performance
How this model performs when predicting games involving each team. Covers 2022-2025 regular season, weeks 5 and later.
| Team | Accuracy ▼ | Record | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 59.7% | 37-25-2 | 64 |
| DAL | 57.8% | 37-27-1 | 65 |
| MIA | 57.8% | 37-27-1 | 65 |
| LAC | 56.2% | 36-28-1 | 65 |
| WAS | 55.7% | 34-27-3 | 64 |
| PHI | 55.6% | 35-28-2 | 65 |
| IND | 55.4% | 36-29-0 | 65 |
| MIN | 54.1% | 33-28-4 | 65 |
| ATL | 54.0% | 34-29-2 | 65 |
| CLE | 54.0% | 34-29-2 | 65 |
| BAL | 53.1% | 34-30-1 | 65 |
| CAR | 53.1% | 34-30-1 | 65 |
| LV | 53.1% | 34-30-1 | 65 |
| CHI | 52.5% | 31-28-6 | 65 |
| NO | 52.3% | 34-31-0 | 65 |
| CIN | 51.6% | 32-30-2 | 64 |
| NE | 50.8% | 32-31-2 | 65 |
| NYG | 50.8% | 32-31-1 | 64 |
| JAX | 50.0% | 32-32-1 | 65 |
| SF | 49.2% | 32-33-0 | 65 |
| TEN | 49.2% | 30-31-4 | 65 |
| BUF | 48.4% | 30-32-2 | 64 |
| KC | 47.6% | 30-33-2 | 65 |
| PIT | 47.6% | 30-33-1 | 64 |
| LA | 46.9% | 30-34-1 | 65 |
| TB | 46.9% | 30-34-1 | 65 |
| SEA | 46.0% | 29-34-2 | 65 |
| NYJ | 45.3% | 29-35-1 | 65 |
| ARI | 44.6% | 29-36-0 | 65 |
| GB | 43.8% | 28-36-1 | 65 |
| DEN | 43.1% | 28-37-0 | 65 |
| HOU | 41.5% | 27-38-0 | 65 |
Forecast History
208 forecasts — 113 correct, 89 incorrect, 6 tie (55.9% accuracy)
| Week | Matchup | Other Forecasts | Forecast | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| '25 Wk 18 | ARI@LA | LA -14.5 | LA14.5pt gap | ARI 20, LA 37 | Correct |
| '25 Wk 18 | DAL@NYG | DAL -3 | NYG3.0pt gap | DAL 17, NYG 34 | Correct |
| '25 Wk 18 | DET@CHI | CHI -3.5 | CHI3.5pt gap | DET 19, CHI 16 | Incorrect |
| '25 Wk 18 | GB@MIN | MIN -12.5 | MIN12.5pt gap | GB 3, MIN 16 | Correct |
| '25 Wk 18 | IND@HOU | HOU -9.5 | HOU9.5pt gap | IND 30, HOU 38 | Incorrect |
| '25 Wk 18 | NYJ@BUF | BUF -12.5 | BUF12.5pt gap | NYJ 8, BUF 35 | Correct |
| '25 Wk 18 | TEN@JAX | JAX -12.5 | JAX12.5pt gap | TEN 7, JAX 41 | Correct |
| '25 Wk 18 | WAS@PHI | PHI -3 | PHI3.0pt gap | WAS 24, PHI 17 | Incorrect |
| '25 Wk 17 | ARI@CIN | CIN -7 | CIN7.0pt gap | ARI 14, CIN 37 | Correct |
| '25 Wk 17 | DET@MIN | DET -7 | MIN7.0pt gap | DET 10, MIN 23 | Correct |
| '25 Wk 17 | HOU@LAC | LAC -1.5 | LAC1.5pt gap | HOU 20, LAC 16 | Incorrect |
| '25 Wk 17 | JAX@IND | JAX -3.5 | JAX3.5pt gap | JAX 23, IND 17 | Correct |
| '25 Wk 16 | CIN@MIA | CIN -3.5 | MIA3.5pt gap | CIN 45, MIA 21 | Incorrect |
| '25 Wk 16 | LAC@DAL | DAL -1.5 | LAC1.5pt gap | LAC 34, DAL 17 | Correct |
| '25 Wk 16 | LA@SEA | SEA -1.5 | SEA1.5pt gap | LA 37, SEA 38 | Incorrect |
| '25 Wk 16 | LV@HOU | HOU -14.5 | HOU14.5pt gap | LV 21, HOU 23 | Incorrect |
| '25 Wk 16 | NYJ@NO | NO -6.5 | NO6.5pt gap | NYJ 6, NO 29 | Correct |
| '25 Wk 15 | ARI@HOU | HOU -10.5 | HOU10.5pt gap | ARI 20, HOU 40 | Correct |
| '25 Wk 15 | CAR@NO | CAR -2.5 | NO2.5pt gap | CAR 17, NO 20 | Correct |
| '25 Wk 15 | DET@LA | LA -5.5 | LA5.5pt gap | DET 34, LA 41 | Correct |
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