Momentum
Trend-basedWeights recent performance heavily using EWMA-smoothed EPA. Catches trending teams early.
Momentum uses exponentially weighted moving averages (EWMA) to put more emphasis on the last 3-4 games rather than the full season. This lets it catch teams that are trending up or down before other forecasts adjust. It has the highest variance of any model. It can go on long correct streaks when it catches a trend early, but it's also more prone to overreacting to small samples. Best paired with a steadier model.
Forecast Accuracy
55.2%
Record
112-91-5
Total Forecasts
208
Best Streak
10
Season-by-Season Performance
Accuracy record across full regular seasons
| Season | Accuracy | Record | Forecasts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 52.5% | 42-38 | 80 |
| 2024 | 59.4% | 38-26-2 | 66 |
| 2023 | 60.6% | 20-13-3 | 36 |
| 2022 | 46.2% | 12-14 | 26 |
Team Performance
How this model performs when predicting games involving each team. Covers 2022-2025 regular season, weeks 5 and later.
| Team | Accuracy ▼ | Record | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| IND | 60.0% | 39-26-0 | 65 |
| KC | 58.7% | 37-26-2 | 65 |
| LAC | 57.8% | 37-27-1 | 65 |
| LV | 57.8% | 37-27-1 | 65 |
| ATL | 55.6% | 35-28-2 | 65 |
| ARI | 55.4% | 36-29-0 | 65 |
| BAL | 54.7% | 35-29-1 | 65 |
| MIA | 54.7% | 35-29-1 | 65 |
| MIN | 54.1% | 33-28-4 | 65 |
| WAS | 54.1% | 33-28-3 | 64 |
| DET | 53.2% | 33-29-2 | 64 |
| NYG | 52.4% | 33-30-1 | 64 |
| DAL | 51.6% | 33-31-1 | 65 |
| PHI | 50.8% | 32-31-2 | 65 |
| TEN | 50.8% | 31-30-4 | 65 |
| NYJ | 50.0% | 32-32-1 | 65 |
| NO | 49.2% | 32-33-0 | 65 |
| SF | 49.2% | 32-33-0 | 65 |
| CAR | 48.4% | 31-33-1 | 65 |
| JAX | 48.4% | 31-33-1 | 65 |
| NE | 47.6% | 30-33-2 | 65 |
| PIT | 47.6% | 30-33-1 | 64 |
| BUF | 46.8% | 29-33-2 | 64 |
| DEN | 46.2% | 30-35-0 | 65 |
| CHI | 45.8% | 27-32-6 | 65 |
| TB | 45.3% | 29-35-1 | 65 |
| HOU | 44.6% | 29-36-0 | 65 |
| CLE | 44.4% | 28-35-2 | 65 |
| CIN | 43.5% | 27-35-2 | 64 |
| SEA | 42.9% | 27-36-2 | 65 |
| GB | 42.2% | 27-37-1 | 65 |
| LA | 40.6% | 26-38-1 | 65 |
Forecast History
208 forecasts — 112 correct, 91 incorrect, 5 tie (55.2% accuracy)
| Week | Matchup | Other Forecasts | Forecast | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| '25 Wk 18 | ARI@LA | LA -14.5 | LA14.5pt gap | ARI 20, LA 37 | Correct |
| '25 Wk 18 | DAL@NYG | DAL -3 | NYG3.0pt gap | DAL 17, NYG 34 | Correct |
| '25 Wk 18 | DET@CHI | CHI -3.5 | CHI3.5pt gap | DET 19, CHI 16 | Incorrect |
| '25 Wk 18 | GB@MIN | MIN -12.5 | MIN12.5pt gap | GB 3, MIN 16 | Correct |
| '25 Wk 18 | IND@HOU | HOU -9.5 | HOU9.5pt gap | IND 30, HOU 38 | Incorrect |
| '25 Wk 18 | NYJ@BUF | BUF -12.5 | BUF12.5pt gap | NYJ 8, BUF 35 | Correct |
| '25 Wk 18 | TEN@JAX | JAX -12.5 | JAX12.5pt gap | TEN 7, JAX 41 | Correct |
| '25 Wk 18 | WAS@PHI | PHI -3 | PHI3.0pt gap | WAS 24, PHI 17 | Incorrect |
| '25 Wk 17 | DAL@WAS | DAL -8.5 | WAS8.5pt gap | DAL 30, WAS 23 | Correct |
| '25 Wk 17 | DEN@KC | DEN -13.5 | KC13.5pt gap | DEN 20, KC 13 | Correct |
| '25 Wk 17 | DET@MIN | DET -7 | MIN7.0pt gap | DET 10, MIN 23 | Correct |
| '25 Wk 17 | HOU@LAC | LAC -1.5 | LAC1.5pt gap | HOU 20, LAC 16 | Incorrect |
| '25 Wk 17 | SEA@CAR | SEA -6.5 | SEA6.5pt gap | SEA 27, CAR 10 | Correct |
| '25 Wk 16 | CIN@MIA | CIN -3.5 | MIA3.5pt gap | CIN 45, MIA 21 | Incorrect |
| '25 Wk 16 | GB@CHI | CHI -1.5 | CHI1.5pt gap | GB 16, CHI 22 | Correct |
| '25 Wk 16 | LAC@DAL | DAL -1.5 | LAC1.5pt gap | LAC 34, DAL 17 | Correct |
| '25 Wk 16 | LV@HOU | HOU -14.5 | HOU14.5pt gap | LV 21, HOU 23 | Incorrect |
| '25 Wk 16 | MIN@NYG | MIN -2.5 | MIN2.5pt gap | MIN 16, NYG 13 | Correct |
| '25 Wk 16 | NE@BAL | BAL -3.5 | BAL3.5pt gap | NE 28, BAL 24 | Incorrect |
| '25 Wk 16 | NYJ@NO | NO -6.5 | NO6.5pt gap | NYJ 6, NO 29 | Correct |
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