Edge Hunter
AggressiveTargets high-confidence non-divisional games where EPA differentials diverge from professional forecasts.
Edge Hunter uses expected points added (EPA) per play differentials to identify non-divisional games where professional forecasts don't reflect the underlying offensive and defensive efficiency gap. Divisional matchups are excluded because familiarity between rivals neutralizes the statistical advantages this model relies on. It leans aggressive, identifying undervalued teams when the data supports it, and fading overvalued teams when EPA suggests professional forecasts are inflated.
Forecast Accuracy
61.1%
Record
80-51-5
Total Forecasts
136
Best Streak
9
Season-by-Season Performance
Accuracy record across full regular seasons
| Season | Accuracy | Record | Forecasts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 51.9% | 27-25 | 52 |
| 2024 | 72.1% | 31-12-1 | 44 |
| 2023 | 61.9% | 13-8-3 | 24 |
| 2022 | 60.0% | 9-6-1 | 16 |
Team Performance
How this model performs when predicting games involving each team. Covers 2022-2025 regular season, weeks 5 and later.
| Team | Accuracy ▼ | Record | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| LAC | 65.6% | 42-22-1 | 65 |
| KC | 61.9% | 39-24-2 | 65 |
| PHI | 60.3% | 38-25-2 | 65 |
| DAL | 57.8% | 37-27-1 | 65 |
| WAS | 57.4% | 35-26-3 | 64 |
| MIN | 55.7% | 34-27-4 | 65 |
| DEN | 55.4% | 36-29-0 | 65 |
| BAL | 54.7% | 35-29-1 | 65 |
| IND | 53.8% | 35-30-0 | 65 |
| DET | 53.2% | 33-29-2 | 64 |
| ATL | 52.4% | 33-30-2 | 65 |
| NYG | 52.4% | 33-30-1 | 64 |
| NYJ | 51.6% | 33-31-1 | 65 |
| ARI | 50.8% | 33-32-0 | 65 |
| LV | 50.0% | 32-32-1 | 65 |
| MIA | 50.0% | 32-32-1 | 65 |
| SF | 49.2% | 32-33-0 | 65 |
| JAX | 48.4% | 31-33-1 | 65 |
| TEN | 47.5% | 29-32-4 | 65 |
| SEA | 46.0% | 29-34-2 | 65 |
| CHI | 45.8% | 27-32-6 | 65 |
| LA | 45.3% | 29-35-1 | 65 |
| NO | 44.6% | 29-36-0 | 65 |
| PIT | 44.4% | 28-35-1 | 64 |
| GB | 43.8% | 28-36-1 | 65 |
| TB | 43.8% | 28-36-1 | 65 |
| CIN | 43.5% | 27-35-2 | 64 |
| HOU | 43.1% | 28-37-0 | 65 |
| NE | 42.9% | 27-36-2 | 65 |
| BUF | 41.9% | 26-36-2 | 64 |
| CLE | 41.3% | 26-37-2 | 65 |
| CAR | 40.6% | 26-38-1 | 65 |
Forecast History
136 forecasts — 80 correct, 51 incorrect, 5 tie (61.1% accuracy)
| Week | Matchup | Other Forecasts | Forecast | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| '25 Wk 17 | HOU@LAC | LAC -1.5 | LAC1.5pt gap | HOU 20, LAC 16 | Incorrect |
| '25 Wk 17 | SEA@CAR | SEA -6.5 | SEA6.5pt gap | SEA 27, CAR 10 | Correct |
| '25 Wk 16 | CIN@MIA | CIN -3.5 | MIA3.5pt gap | CIN 45, MIA 21 | Incorrect |
| '25 Wk 16 | JAX@DEN | DEN -3.5 | JAX3.5pt gap | JAX 34, DEN 20 | Correct |
| '25 Wk 16 | LAC@DAL | DAL -1.5 | LAC1.5pt gap | LAC 34, DAL 17 | Correct |
| '25 Wk 16 | LV@HOU | HOU -14.5 | HOU14.5pt gap | LV 21, HOU 23 | Incorrect |
| '25 Wk 16 | MIN@NYG | MIN -2.5 | MIN2.5pt gap | MIN 16, NYG 13 | Correct |
| '25 Wk 16 | NE@BAL | BAL -3.5 | BAL3.5pt gap | NE 28, BAL 24 | Incorrect |
| '25 Wk 16 | NYJ@NO | NO -6.5 | NO6.5pt gap | NYJ 6, NO 29 | Correct |
| '25 Wk 15 | ARI@HOU | HOU -10.5 | HOU10.5pt gap | ARI 20, HOU 40 | Correct |
| '25 Wk 15 | MIA@PIT | PIT -3 | MIA3.0pt gap | MIA 15, PIT 28 | Incorrect |
| '25 Wk 15 | MIN@DAL | DAL -5.5 | MIN5.5pt gap | MIN 34, DAL 26 | Correct |
| '25 Wk 15 | NYJ@JAX | JAX -13.5 | JAX13.5pt gap | NYJ 20, JAX 48 | Correct |
| '25 Wk 14 | DAL@DET | DET -3.5 | DET3.5pt gap | DAL 30, DET 44 | Correct |
| '25 Wk 14 | HOU@KC | KC -4.5 | HOU4.5pt gap | HOU 20, KC 10 | Correct |
| '25 Wk 14 | WAS@MIN | WAS -1.5 | MIN1.5pt gap | WAS 0, MIN 31 | Correct |
| '25 Wk 13 | BUF@PIT | BUF -3 | PIT3.0pt gap | BUF 26, PIT 7 | Incorrect |
| '25 Wk 13 | DEN@WAS | DEN -6.5 | DEN6.5pt gap | DEN 27, WAS 26 | Incorrect |
| '25 Wk 13 | LA@CAR | LA -10 | LA10.0pt gap | LA 28, CAR 31 | Incorrect |
| '25 Wk 13 | NYG@NE | NE -7 | NE7.0pt gap | NYG 15, NE 33 | Correct |
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