Divisional Edge
SituationalSpecializes in divisional matchups where familiarity skews professional forecasts. Strongest in weeks 10-18.
Divisional Edge only forecasts games between division rivals. These matchups are unique. Teams know each other intimately, game plans are tailored, and familiarity often neutralizes talent gaps. The model identifies when professional forecasts overvalue a divisional leader or underestimate a rival who matches up well schematically. It makes fewer forecasts per week but at a higher accuracy rate.
Forecast Accuracy
53.3%
Record
40-35
Total Forecasts
75
Best Streak
4
Season-by-Season Performance
Accuracy record across full regular seasons
| Season | Accuracy | Record | Forecasts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 63.3% | 19-11 | 30 |
| 2024 | 44.0% | 11-14 | 25 |
| 2023 | 53.8% | 7-6 | 13 |
| 2022 | 42.9% | 3-4 | 7 |
Team Performance
How this model performs when predicting games involving each team. Covers 2022-2025 regular season, weeks 5 and later.
| Team | Accuracy ▼ | Record | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 63.9% | 39-22-4 | 65 |
| DET | 61.3% | 38-24-2 | 64 |
| NO | 60.0% | 39-26-0 | 65 |
| LAC | 59.4% | 38-26-1 | 65 |
| IND | 58.5% | 38-27-0 | 65 |
| LV | 56.2% | 36-28-1 | 65 |
| CHI | 55.9% | 33-26-6 | 65 |
| WAS | 55.7% | 34-27-3 | 64 |
| DAL | 54.7% | 35-29-1 | 65 |
| NE | 54.0% | 34-29-2 | 65 |
| JAX | 53.1% | 34-30-1 | 65 |
| NYJ | 53.1% | 34-30-1 | 65 |
| KC | 50.8% | 32-31-2 | 65 |
| SF | 50.8% | 33-32-0 | 65 |
| CIN | 50.0% | 31-31-2 | 64 |
| MIA | 50.0% | 32-32-1 | 65 |
| CLE | 49.2% | 31-32-2 | 65 |
| TB | 48.4% | 31-33-1 | 65 |
| ATL | 47.6% | 30-33-2 | 65 |
| PHI | 47.6% | 30-33-2 | 65 |
| SEA | 47.6% | 30-33-2 | 65 |
| TEN | 47.5% | 29-32-4 | 65 |
| ARI | 46.2% | 30-35-0 | 65 |
| DEN | 46.2% | 30-35-0 | 65 |
| PIT | 46.0% | 29-34-1 | 64 |
| BAL | 43.8% | 28-36-1 | 65 |
| GB | 43.8% | 28-36-1 | 65 |
| BUF | 43.5% | 27-35-2 | 64 |
| NYG | 42.9% | 27-36-1 | 64 |
| CAR | 40.6% | 26-38-1 | 65 |
| LA | 40.6% | 26-38-1 | 65 |
| HOU | 40.0% | 26-39-0 | 65 |
Forecast History
75 forecasts — 40 correct, 35 incorrect (53.3% accuracy)
| Week | Matchup | Other Forecasts | Forecast | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| '25 Wk 18 | ARI@LA | LA -14.5 | LA14.5pt gap | ARI 20, LA 37 | Correct |
| '25 Wk 18 | DAL@NYG | DAL -3 | NYG3.0pt gap | DAL 17, NYG 34 | Correct |
| '25 Wk 18 | DET@CHI | CHI -3.5 | CHI3.5pt gap | DET 19, CHI 16 | Incorrect |
| '25 Wk 18 | GB@MIN | MIN -12.5 | MIN12.5pt gap | GB 3, MIN 16 | Correct |
| '25 Wk 18 | NYJ@BUF | BUF -12.5 | BUF12.5pt gap | NYJ 8, BUF 35 | Correct |
| '25 Wk 18 | SEA@SF | SEA -2.5 | SEA2.5pt gap | SEA 13, SF 3 | Correct |
| '25 Wk 18 | TEN@JAX | JAX -12.5 | JAX12.5pt gap | TEN 7, JAX 41 | Correct |
| '25 Wk 18 | WAS@PHI | PHI -3 | PHI3.0pt gap | WAS 24, PHI 17 | Incorrect |
| '25 Wk 17 | DET@MIN | DET -7 | MIN7.0pt gap | DET 10, MIN 23 | Correct |
| '25 Wk 17 | JAX@IND | JAX -3.5 | JAX3.5pt gap | JAX 23, IND 17 | Correct |
| '25 Wk 17 | NE@NYJ | NE -12.5 | NE12.5pt gap | NE 42, NYJ 10 | Correct |
| '25 Wk 17 | PIT@CLE | PIT -4.5 | PIT4.5pt gap | PIT 6, CLE 13 | Incorrect |
| '25 Wk 15 | BAL@CIN | BAL -2.5 | BAL2.5pt gap | BAL 24, CIN 0 | Correct |
| '25 Wk 15 | CAR@NO | CAR -2.5 | NO2.5pt gap | CAR 17, NO 20 | Correct |
| '25 Wk 14 | LA@ARI | LA -9.5 | LA9.5pt gap | LA 45, ARI 17 | Correct |
| '25 Wk 14 | PIT@BAL | BAL -5.5 | BAL5.5pt gap | PIT 27, BAL 22 | Incorrect |
| '25 Wk 13 | CIN@BAL | BAL -7 | BAL7.0pt gap | CIN 32, BAL 14 | Incorrect |
| '25 Wk 13 | JAX@TEN | JAX -6 | JAX6.0pt gap | JAX 25, TEN 3 | Correct |
| '25 Wk 13 | LV@LAC | LAC -10 | LAC10.0pt gap | LV 14, LAC 31 | Correct |
| '25 Wk 11 | CHI@MIN | MIN -3 | CHI3.0pt gap | CHI 19, MIN 17 | Correct |
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