Composite v1
BlendedEnsemble of the other four models, weighted by recent Q4 confidence accuracy. Best overall performer.
Composite v1 is our meta-model. It takes the forecasts from all four individual models and weights them by how well each model has performed in the most recent quarter of the season. This adaptive weighting means Divisional Edge gets more influence late in the season, while Momentum might lead early when trends emerge fastest. It's our most popular model and our best long-term performer.
Forecast Accuracy
57.7%
Record
116-85-7
Total Forecasts
208
Best Streak
8
Season-by-Season Performance
Accuracy record across full regular seasons
| Season | Accuracy | Record | Forecasts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 56.8% | 46-35 | 81 |
| 2024 | 57.7% | 41-30-3 | 74 |
| 2023 | 58.6% | 17-12-3 | 32 |
| 2022 | 60.0% | 12-8-1 | 21 |
Team Performance
How this model performs when predicting games involving each team. Covers 2022-2025 regular season, weeks 5 and later.
| Team | Accuracy ▼ | Record | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 59.0% | 36-25-4 | 65 |
| IND | 58.5% | 38-27-0 | 65 |
| DAL | 57.8% | 37-27-1 | 65 |
| LAC | 56.2% | 36-28-1 | 65 |
| PHI | 55.6% | 35-28-2 | 65 |
| SF | 53.8% | 35-30-0 | 65 |
| DET | 53.2% | 33-29-2 | 64 |
| WAS | 52.5% | 32-29-3 | 64 |
| NE | 52.4% | 33-30-2 | 65 |
| MIA | 51.6% | 33-31-1 | 65 |
| ATL | 50.8% | 32-31-2 | 65 |
| BAL | 50.0% | 32-32-1 | 65 |
| JAX | 50.0% | 32-32-1 | 65 |
| NYJ | 50.0% | 32-32-1 | 65 |
| ARI | 49.2% | 32-33-0 | 65 |
| NO | 49.2% | 32-33-0 | 65 |
| PIT | 49.2% | 31-32-1 | 64 |
| TB | 48.4% | 31-33-1 | 65 |
| CLE | 47.6% | 30-33-2 | 65 |
| NYG | 47.6% | 30-33-1 | 64 |
| SEA | 47.6% | 30-33-2 | 65 |
| CHI | 47.5% | 28-31-6 | 65 |
| LA | 46.9% | 30-34-1 | 65 |
| CIN | 46.8% | 29-33-2 | 64 |
| LV | 45.3% | 29-35-1 | 65 |
| KC | 44.4% | 28-35-2 | 65 |
| TEN | 44.3% | 27-34-4 | 65 |
| CAR | 43.8% | 28-36-1 | 65 |
| DEN | 43.1% | 28-37-0 | 65 |
| HOU | 41.5% | 27-38-0 | 65 |
| BUF | 40.3% | 25-37-2 | 64 |
| GB | 35.9% | 23-41-1 | 65 |
Forecast History
208 forecasts — 116 correct, 85 incorrect, 7 tie (57.7% accuracy)
| Week | Matchup | Other Forecasts | Forecast | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| '25 Wk 18 | ARI@LA | LA -14.5 | LA14.5pt gap | ARI 20, LA 37 | Correct |
| '25 Wk 18 | DAL@NYG | DAL -3 | NYG3.0pt gap | DAL 17, NYG 34 | Correct |
| '25 Wk 18 | DET@CHI | CHI -3.5 | CHI3.5pt gap | DET 19, CHI 16 | Incorrect |
| '25 Wk 18 | GB@MIN | MIN -12.5 | MIN12.5pt gap | GB 3, MIN 16 | Correct |
| '25 Wk 18 | SEA@SF | SEA -2.5 | SEA2.5pt gap | SEA 13, SF 3 | Correct |
| '25 Wk 18 | TEN@JAX | JAX -12.5 | JAX12.5pt gap | TEN 7, JAX 41 | Correct |
| '25 Wk 18 | WAS@PHI | PHI -3 | PHI3.0pt gap | WAS 24, PHI 17 | Incorrect |
| '25 Wk 17 | DET@MIN | DET -7 | MIN7.0pt gap | DET 10, MIN 23 | Correct |
| '25 Wk 17 | HOU@LAC | LAC -1.5 | LAC1.5pt gap | HOU 20, LAC 16 | Incorrect |
| '25 Wk 17 | JAX@IND | JAX -3.5 | JAX3.5pt gap | JAX 23, IND 17 | Correct |
| '25 Wk 17 | SEA@CAR | SEA -6.5 | SEA6.5pt gap | SEA 27, CAR 10 | Correct |
| '25 Wk 16 | ATL@ARI | ATL -2.5 | ATL2.5pt gap | ATL 26, ARI 19 | Correct |
| '25 Wk 16 | JAX@DEN | DEN -3.5 | JAX3.5pt gap | JAX 34, DEN 20 | Correct |
| '25 Wk 16 | LAC@DAL | DAL -1.5 | LAC1.5pt gap | LAC 34, DAL 17 | Correct |
| '25 Wk 16 | LV@HOU | HOU -14.5 | HOU14.5pt gap | LV 21, HOU 23 | Incorrect |
| '25 Wk 16 | MIN@NYG | MIN -2.5 | MIN2.5pt gap | MIN 16, NYG 13 | Correct |
| '25 Wk 16 | NE@BAL | BAL -3.5 | BAL3.5pt gap | NE 28, BAL 24 | Incorrect |
| '25 Wk 16 | NYJ@NO | NO -6.5 | NO6.5pt gap | NYJ 6, NO 29 | Correct |
| '25 Wk 16 | PHI@WAS | PHI -7 | PHI7.0pt gap | PHI 29, WAS 18 | Correct |
| '25 Wk 15 | ARI@HOU | HOU -10.5 | HOU10.5pt gap | ARI 20, HOU 40 | Correct |
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